George Washington

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	195.0
Current RPI:	195
Expected SOS:	122
Current SOS:	122
Current Record:	15-18
Expected Record:	15-18
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-3
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	152
Expected OOC SOS:	68

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-18	195.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	84-75	W	100%
11-14	Florida St. (54.0)	ACC	A	87-67	L	0%
11-18	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	H	65-57	W	100%
11-20	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	H	65-67	L	0%
11-23	Xavier (3.0)	BE	N	83-64	L	0%
11-24	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	N	67-59	L	0%
11-29	Morgan St. (327.0)	MEAC	H	73-66	W	100%
12-3	Temple (52.0)	Amer	N	71-67	W	100%
12-6	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	71-60	W	100%
12-9	Penn St. (77.0)	B10	A	74-54	L	0%
12-16	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	H	50-59	L	0%
12-20	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	68-64	W	100%
12-23	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	58-48	W	100%
12-30	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	H	70-64	W	100%
1-3	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	A	69-52	L	0%
1-6	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	H	60-81	L	0%
1-10	Davidson (47.0)	A10	A	72-45	L	0%
1-13	Richmond (176.0)	A10	A	78-68	L	0%
1-17	George Mason (201.0)	A10	H	80-68	W	100%
1-20	VCU (135.0)	A10	A	87-63	L	0%
1-28	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	A	70-52	L	0%
1-31	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	H	73-75	L	0%
2-3	Davidson (47.0)	A10	H	58-87	L	0%
2-7	La Salle (202.0)	A10	H	80-69	W	100%
2-10	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	72-65	L	0%
2-14	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	A	72-83	W	100%
2-17	VCU (135.0)	A10	H	80-56	W	100%
2-21	Richmond (176.0)	A10	H	103-77	W	100%
2-24	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	A	62-53	L	0%
2-28	Fordham (290.0)	A10	H	72-56	W	100%
3-3	Dayton (146.0)	A10	A	88-78	L	0%
3-7	Fordham (290.0)	A10	N	78-72	W	100%
3-8	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	N	70-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

George Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against George Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
George Washington	A10	26.12	26.12	39.85	39.85	-5.30	-5.30
Richmond	A10	3.71	3.71	36.67	36.67	-0.99	-0.99
Davidson	A10	3.69	3.69	63.33	63.33	0.98	0.98
Fordham	A10	3.69	3.69	31.03	31.03	-1.40	-1.40
George Mason	A10	3.69	3.69	48.39	48.39	-0.12	-0.12
VCU	A10	3.67	3.67	54.84	54.84	0.36	0.36
Saint Louis	A10	3.67	3.67	46.67	46.67	-0.24	-0.24
Duquesne	A10	3.65	3.65	46.67	46.67	-0.24	-0.24
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.27	2.27	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.25	2.25	77.42	77.42	1.23	1.23
Rhode Island	A10	2.22	2.22	77.42	77.42	1.22	1.22
La Salle	A10	2.20	2.20	41.94	41.94	-0.36	-0.36
Massachusetts	A10	2.20	2.20	40.62	40.62	-0.41	-0.41
Dayton	A10	2.20	2.20	43.33	43.33	-0.29	-0.29
Harvard	Ivy	1.66	1.66	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
Hampton	MEAC	1.64	1.64	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Miami FL	ACC	1.61	1.61	70.00	70.00	0.65	0.65
Princeton	Ivy	1.61	1.61	44.44	44.44	-0.18	-0.18
Florida St.	ACC	1.61	1.61	63.33	63.33	0.43	0.43
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	37.93	37.93	-0.39	-0.39
Rider	MAAC	1.61	1.61	70.00	70.00	0.64	0.64
Penn St.	B10	1.59	1.59	60.61	60.61	0.34	0.34
Howard	MEAC	1.56	1.56	26.67	26.67	-0.73	-0.73
Xavier	BE	1.56	1.56	84.38	84.38	1.08	1.08
Temple	Amer	1.56	1.56	54.84	54.84	0.15	0.15
Kansas St.	B12	1.52	1.52	65.62	65.62	0.47	0.47
New Hampshire	AE	1.52	1.52	28.57	28.57	-0.65	-0.65
Penn	Ivy	0.25	0.25	74.19	74.19	0.12	0.12
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.25	0.25	24.24	24.24	-0.13	-0.13
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.19	0.19	93.94	93.94	0.17	0.17
Providence	BE	0.19	0.19	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.18	0.18	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.17	0.17	16.67	16.67	-0.11	-0.11
Boston College	ACC	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Manhattan	MAAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	6.67	6.67	-0.13	-0.13
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	15.62	15.62	-0.10	-0.10
Binghamton	AE	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Tulane	Amer	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.14	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
VMI	SC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.13	0.13	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Brown	Ivy	0.13	0.13	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.13	0.13	26.92	26.92	-0.06	-0.06
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Villanova	BE	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Seton Hall	BE	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.04	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.04	0.04	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.04	0.04	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01